Feasibility Study — NOTQIN Auto Tier-2 Scorecard Defense (Morocco)
What this doc is. The April 2026 broad feasibility study (Feasibility Study — DigiTPME 2026) verdict-checked DigiTPME as a 6-sector platform play. This supplement narrows the question to a single thesis — can NOTQIN sell scorecard-defense tooling to AMICA Tier-2/3 plants in Morocco? — and lists exactly what we need to validate before scaling outreach.
Today’s verdict: PLAUSIBLE — proceed to 5-day validation sprint, not to 90-day outreach.
0. The narrow thesis
Moroccan-owned and independent Tier-2/3 automotive suppliers in the AMICA cluster (Tanger Med Zone, Kenitra AFZ, Casablanca-Berrechid axis) will pay MAD 5–10k for a Diagnostic Pack and MAD 300k–1.2M for a 30-day pilot that protects their OEM scorecard against Stellantis / Renault penalty exposure — IATF 16949 evidence assembly, sub-minute line-stop root cause, and PPAP automation.
If that sentence is true, NOTQIN has a first-revenue path that does not depend on aero MRO patience, OCP institutional momentum, or CBAM enforcement strictness. If it’s false, the thesis fails fast and cheaply — within one week of structured discovery calls.
1. What stays evergreen from the April broad doc
These parts of Feasibility Study — DigiTPME 2026 still hold and are reused, not rewritten:
| Topic | Reused | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Technical buildability (Part 3) | Open-source stack inventory, 6-month MVP framework, edge / cloud / PLC driver maps | ✅ Evergreen |
| Regulatory baseline (Part 6) | CNDP declaration, CESMII schema, IEC 62443 alignment, open-source license posture | ✅ Evergreen |
| Sub-Saharan competitor reading | 4Sight Holdings not in North Africa; integrators are partners not threats | ✅ Evergreen |
| TAM line for AMICA | ~250 firms × 0.5M MAD avg → 125M MAD/yr serviceable | ⚠️ Re-segment (this doc, §3) |
| Kill criteria framework | Month-9 / Month-12 / Month-18 gates | ✅ Evergreen, re-anchored to narrow thesis |
2. What’s stale and replaced under the narrow thesis
| April assumption | Reality / replacement |
|---|---|
| ”10 ENSA engineers + 1 AI lead + 1 founder = 12 total” | Current truth: 1 founder + Claude agent. ENSA team is aspirational, not assembled. Founder is the entire delivery surface until first paying contract closes. Capacity assumptions in Part 4 of the broad doc do not hold. |
| ”Lighthouse pilot = YNNA Steel CBAM or Lesieur Cristal” | Lighthouse target shifts to AMICA Tier-2/3 (faster sales cycle, smaller signing authority threshold, weekly pain vs annual). YNNA/Lesieur remain in the broader pipeline at Stage 0. |
| ”CBAM-driven account list as primary urgency” | CBAM does not directly hit auto OEMs / Tier-2/3 (CBAM scope = cement / iron-steel / Al / fert / H₂ / electricity). Pitching CBAM here loses credibility. Replaced by OEM scorecard + line-stop + IATF audit urgency. |
| ”Hallotex pilot live, conversion underway” | Hallotex is a synthetic dev placeholder, not a real pilot (project-notqin-customer-state). Zero signed customers as of 2026-05-21. |
| Avg deal size 800k MAD | Likely too high for Tier-2/3 first deal. Hypothesis 4 below — needs buyer validation. |
| 4–6 simultaneous pilots in steady state | At founder-only capacity: 1–2 simultaneous pilots maximum, single-thread until Eng #1 hires. |
3. Re-segmented TAM (narrow thesis only)
The April doc lumped AMICA as one row (~250 firms × MAD 0.5M = MAD 125M/yr). Under the narrow thesis we need a stricter cut.
Layer 1 — Total AMICA membership
- AMICA has ≥160 members (College I industry + College II spare-parts) — directory not publicly indexed.
- Wider Moroccan auto supplier base: ~250+ firms (Ministry estimates, OBG, Mordor Intelligence — see Sources).
Layer 2 — Addressable cut for narrow thesis
Strip out the segments that do not fit our buyer profile right now:
| Filter | Reasoning | Cut |
|---|---|---|
| Multinational Tier-1 with HQ outside Morocco | Lear, Yazaki, Sumitomo, Aptiv, Leoni, Saint-Gobain — Japanese / German / US HQ approval cycles run 9–12 months. Phase-2 targets, not Phase-1. | Remove ~60 firms |
| OEMs themselves | Stellantis, Renault — sell to their suppliers, not them. Direct OEM sale is multi-year. | Remove 2 |
| Pure spare-parts importers (AMICA College II) | Distribution, not manufacturing. No PLCs, no scorecard exposure. | Remove ~40 firms |
| Sub-MAD-50M revenue firms | Likely too small to feel scorecard pressure; budget unlikely. | Remove ~50 firms |
| Remaining: Moroccan-owned / independent Tier-2/3, mid-sized, manufacturing assets | ~80–120 firms — this is the narrow-thesis TAM | ✅ Target pool |
Layer 3 — Realistic Y1 capture
At founder-only capacity (1 active pilot, 1 in delivery, 1 in negotiation max):
| Scenario | Diagnostic Packs delivered | Pilots signed | Y1 revenue if hypothesis 4 holds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5 | 0 | 25–50k MAD only |
| Base | 12 | 2 | 600k–1.6M MAD |
| Bull | 20 | 4 | 1.6M–4M MAD |
Compared to the April broad-doc base case (2.4M MAD on 3 sector-diverse pilots), the auto-Tier-2 base case is in the same envelope with a single, much tighter market thesis. That’s the right trade for a 1-founder operation.
4. The seven hypotheses to validate (the sprint)
Every number in §3 above depends on these seven hypotheses being true. They are currently unvalidated — pulled from research + judgement + this chat. The 5-day discovery sprint is built to test all seven.
H1 — The buyer
We assume: the decision-maker for a 5–10k MAD Diagnostic Pack is the head of QHSE or plant director at an AMICA Tier-2/3 plant; they can sign locally without HQ. Sprint test: in each discovery call, ask “Who would decide on a 10k MAD audit-prep tool? What about a 500k MAD pilot? What’s the dollar threshold above which HQ kicks in?” Why it matters: if the real buyer is the CEO or sits in France/Germany/Japan, our outreach channel is wrong and our pricing is wrong.
H2 — The pain
We assume: OEM scorecard defense + line-stop minutes + IATF / PPAP load are the top 3 weekly pains. Sprint test: “What are the top 3 things that keep you awake about Stellantis / Renault relationship?” — open-ended, then map to our list. If they instead say “cash flow on OEM 120-day payment terms” or “labor turnover” or “raw-steel CBAM pass-through,” we re-anchor.
H3 — The willingness to pay
We assume: 5–10k MAD for a Diagnostic Pack is in the sweet spot; 300k–1.2M MAD for a pilot is acceptable. Sprint test: “If a 1-day site audit + a 1-page diagnostic + a 30-day pilot scope existed, what would feel reasonable to pay for the audit? For the pilot?” — let them name a number first. Public reference data we have: Stellantis APQP/PPAP harmonized training (SNECI) runs for €1,200–€2,500/seat per training. If suppliers pay that for training, paying 5–10k MAD for an operational audit is plausible.
H4 — The channel
We assume: LinkedIn DM + WhatsApp + warm-intros via CGEM / AMICA / ENSA network works. Sprint test: “How did your last 3 tech vendors first reach you? What gets your attention vs gets ignored?” Bias check: Moroccan B2B runs heavily on WhatsApp and phone — not email. Sprint must validate this assumption before scaling outreach.
H5 — The competitive baseline
We assume: they have no scorecard-defense tool today — spreadsheets, MES dashboards, or nothing. Sprint test: “Walk me through what happens today when Stellantis flags PPM. What tools do you open?” Known competitive references: Stellantis SQ.00010 PPAP audit standard is publicly enforced. The April 2025 Stellantis Scorecard IATF Quick Reference Guide explicitly requires “performance data not older than 1 month” — strong tailwind for our thesis if suppliers are scrambling to comply.
H6 — The timing
We assume: budget exists in 2026 (immediate-Q3/Q4); EV/MHEV requalification creates new buying urgency. Sprint test: “Where in the budget cycle would something like this land? Is there money in the 2026 envelope, or is it 2027?”
H7 — The differentiator
We assume: “founder-led, Moroccan-built, open-stack, data stays in Morocco” beats “MES vendor adds module” and “SAP can do it.” Sprint test: “If SAP / your MES vendor offered the same feature next month, what would you do?” Risk: answer might be “we’d take SAP — they’re already on the network.” If so, our positioning must shift to where SAP/MES literally cannot go (real-time floor, edge, sector-specific).
5. Discovery sprint — 5 working days
Goal
10 structured discovery calls with named AMICA Tier-2/3 contacts in 5 working days. Output = a 2-page validated brief that updates this doc with what we actually heard.
Rules
- Discovery, not pitch. Open with “I’m researching scorecard-defense pain in AMICA Tier-2 plants — not selling anything today. 20 minutes of your perspective in exchange for a summary of what I hear across 10 plants.”
- No product slides. No pricing. No landing page. Listening only.
- 20 minutes hard cap. Builds reciprocity; respects their time.
- Same 7 questions every call (H1–H7 above). Consistency > improvisation.
- Notes in a single sheet, one tab per call.
Outreach plan to land 10 calls
- Target: 50 outreach attempts (15–25% acceptance typical in industrial B2B).
- Channel mix: 30 LinkedIn DMs + 10 WhatsApp messages via warm intros + 10 calls direct to plant switchboards asking for QHSE.
- See AMICA Tier-2 Target List 2026 for the named-account starting set.
- Run window: Mon–Fri of one calendar week.
Output
After the sprint, this doc gets a §6 added: “What we heard.” Update each H1–H7 with the consensus answer + dissent. Then re-decide go/pivot/kill against §7 criteria.
6. What we heard
(To be filled in after the sprint. Leave empty until calls are done.)
| Hypothesis | Pre-sprint assumption | Post-sprint finding | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 Buyer | QHSE / plant director | to fill | to fill |
| H2 Pain | Scorecard + line-stop + IATF | to fill | to fill |
| H3 Willingness to pay | 5–10k diag / 300k–1.2M pilot | to fill | to fill |
| H4 Channel | LinkedIn + WhatsApp + warm intros | to fill | to fill |
| H5 Competitive baseline | No tool / spreadsheets | to fill | to fill |
| H6 Timing | 2026 budget exists | to fill | to fill |
| H7 Differentiator | Open-stack + Moroccan | to fill | to fill |
7. Decision criteria (post-sprint)
After the sprint, the thesis gets one of three labels — applied honestly, not aspirationally.
GO — proceed to 30-day outreach
All four must be true:
- ≥ 5 of 7 hypotheses validated as written (or close enough that minor messaging changes fix them)
- At least 2 prospects asked “how do I get this?” unprompted during a discovery call
- Pricing landed within ±50 % of the 5–10k Diagnostic / 300k–1.2M pilot range across multiple calls
- At least one warm follow-up meeting was requested
PIVOT — re-thesis before outreach
Any one true:
- A different pain showed up in ≥ 5 of 10 calls (most likely: cash flow / payment terms / labor cost)
- The real buyer turned out to be a multinational HQ outside Morocco for most accounts
- Willingness-to-pay clustered an order of magnitude below our number
KILL the auto-Tier-2 thesis (return to broad GTM)
Any one true:
- 8+ of 10 calls said “interesting but not for us”
- Pricing came back at MAD 500 or “free or it’s not interesting”
- A direct competitor was named in ≥ 5 calls as already solving this (i.e. the market is already won and we missed it)
In all three branches, the data collected becomes input to the next decision. None of it is wasted.
8. Updates required in upstream docs after sprint
If GO: update NOTQIN Project Management OS Q3 OKR1 to “Land first AMICA Tier-2 pilot,” update NOTQIN Go-to-Market OS §2A pipeline with the discovery-call contacts that converted to follow-ups, update pricing menu to the band buyers validated.
If PIVOT: rewrite NOTQIN GTM — Aeronautics & Automotive §3 (auto deep-dive) around the real pain that showed up.
If KILL: archive this doc with a post-mortem, return to the parent Feasibility Study — DigiTPME 2026 and re-pick the wedge.
Sources
- AMICA – Association Marocaine pour l’Industrie et la Construction Automobile
- Driving The Dream: Morocco’s Rise In The Global Automotive Industry — Policy Center
- Morocco automotive market — Ministère de l’Industrie
- Stellantis Scorecard IATF 16949 Quick Reference Guide — April 2025
- Stellantis-FCA PPAP Audit (SQ.00010 standard)
- Stellantis CSR for IATF 16949 v1
- SNECI Stellantis APQP/PPAP harmonized training
- Floquet Monopole — Une ascension fulgurante (Industries.ma)
- Polydesign Systems — full-service automotive interior supplier
- Morocco — Local links in the auto value chain (Africa Report)
- Kerix — Moroccan automotive parts & equipment directory
- MarkLines — Morocco automotive industry portal